Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Monday’s game, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50, admittedly a big assumption given the form of some teams.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with four games left for each team, current NRRs are more than likely to change significantly.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for all 8 teams as things stand now, with 16 league stage matches left to play:
1) CSK can finish no lower than joint 3rd since there can at best be two teams that cross their current tally of 16 points. Their chances of finishing in one of the top two slots either singly or jointly with other teams is 97%.
2) DC too cannot finish lower than tied for third spot. Their chances of ending the league stage in first or second spot, either by themselves or tied with others, are only slightly lower at 95%.
3) RCB’s chances of finishing in the top four, either singly or jointly, has jumped to 96%, but they could still end up as low as 7th. Their chances of finishing in the top two slots or tying for one of them are a modest 27%.
4) The chances of KKR, currently in fourth place, ending up grabbing one of the four qualifying spots or tying for them have improved a little to 40%. The franchise has a less than 0.7% chance of making it to the top two.
5) Punjab Kings have moved up to fifth and their chances of making it to the top four or tying for one of those slots have also risen slightly to 41%. They have a just under 1% chance of making it to the top two.
6) RR’s loss on Monday means their chances of grabbing or sharing one of the top four slots has slipped from 55% before that game to 41%. Like PBKS, their chances of making it to the top two are just under 1%.
7) MI is at the moment in seventh spot, though tied on points with KKR, PBKS and RR. Like those three teams, MI has a 41% chance of making it to the top four slots either singly or tied. Again, like KKR, MI has a less than 0.7% chance of reaching the top two.
8) SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four or tying for one of those spots have doubled but still remain at a lowly 2.2%. The best it can hope for is a third place finish after the league stage and even for that there is a less than 0.1% chance.
9) To sum up, the table topper after the league stage will now definitely be one of CSK, DC or RCB. The chances that all three will qualify is 96%. So, realistically, as things stand right now, the remaining five teams are all fighting to grab one spot.