The Week 11 NFL schedule continues Sunday after Thursday’s kickoff produced another underdog winner on the Tennessee Titans (+3), who pounded the Packers 27-17 in Green Bay. Pro football underdogs are 82-62-5 (57%) against the spread (ATS) this season (variance in grading lines). The Packers (4-7) are the first team this season to clinch the ‘under’ on their season win total (10.5). Hardly an honor to have, especially for a team that was the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed last season and the favorite to win the NFC North.
That distinction now belongs to the Minnesota Vikings (8-1), who have nearly clinched the NFC North before Thanksgiving following the most thrilling and memorable finish last week at Buffalo in a 33-30 OT win.
Now the Vikings (+1.5) are a home underdog to the Dallas Cowboys in one of the biggest bet games on the Week 11 card. Minnesota is the last remaining team that is undefeated at home (4-0) this season. Both the Vikings and Cowboys also host Thanksgiving Day games on Nov. 24 following their Week 11 showdown in Minneapolis with both teams on their way to the NFC playoffs.
Other games drawing more betting interest at the leading U.S. sportsbooks include: (favorites in parentheses, and NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook).
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Types of bets and how to read the odds.
The Bills-Browns game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit due to the severe weather and snowstorm in Western New York. Bills fans will still be traveling in big numbers to Detroit to support the Super Bowl favorite.
Four Week 11 games are rematches from earlier this season. The Patriots, Steelers, Raiders and Chiefs won the first division meetings.
- New York Jets at New England (-3.5)
- Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
- Las Vegas at Denver (-3)
- Kansas City (-5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Current odds to win Super Bowl LVII for leading favorites and contenders ahead of NFL Week 11. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Bills (+400) – Vikings (+1100) – Buccaneers (+1700) – Seahawks (+5000)
- Chiefs (+500) – Ravens (+1300) – Titans (+2300) – NY Giants (+6000)
- Eagles (+600) – Cowboys (+1500) – Bengals (+2800) – Jets (+6500)
- 49ers (+850) – Dolphins (+1700) – Chargers (+3400) – Patriots (+6500)
Bears QB Justin Fields Runs into NFL Record Books
Despite ranking among the worst QB’s this season in passing yards, grades and efficiency through the first five games, Bears QB Justin Fields is rapidly improving and showing off his running skills. Fields rushed for 147 yards versus the Lions last Sunday a week after running for 178 yards against the Dolphins – both in very close losses. The 178 rushing yards in one game and the 325 in a two-game span are both the most by a quarterback in NFL history.
Fields cut back in practice this week with more soreness after Sunday’s game against the Lions.
“It’s just the running,” he said. “My legs just felt heavy after the game. The guys on the strength staff said that my load has been pretty high.”
Chicago (+3) is drawing interest on the road at Atlanta with nearly 2/1 spread bets and money supporting the Bears. Despite rushing for at least 235 yards in each of their last five games, the Bears have lost four times. Quarterback Justin Fields has rushed for 558 yards in the last five games, and he leads NFL quarterbacks in rushing with 749 yards this season and 7.2 yards per run.
The Playbook Sports newsletter notes that Chicago is the first team in the the NFL’s 103-season history to rush for at least 225 yards in five consecutive games. Yet the Bears are just 1-4 in those contests. The Bears are also the only team in NFL history to score more than 28 points in three consecutive games and lose all three. I bet that ends Sunday against the deficient Falcons defense. Chicago has scored at least 29 points in four consecutive games since unleashing Fields.
The Falcons have been outgained in each of its last nine games – and 23 of 26 games overall under head coach Arthur Smith. Atlanta (4-6) is also 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
Here are some additional data points from Sharp Football Analysis regarding Justin Fields and the Bears-Falcons match-up. I bet on the Bears this week, and you can get additional angles, insights, analysis & more info for betting, fantasy & Daily Fantasy Sports for free this week. Follow Sharp Football Analysis on Twitter (SharpFBAnalysis) for more NFL updates and details.
- The Bears lead the NFL with seven offensive plays of 50 or more yards.
- Chicago has scored on 22-of-42 (52.4%) of their drives over the past four weeks (second in the NFL) after scoring on 20-of-62 (32.3%) possessions Weeks 1-6 (21st).
- Opponents have scored on 48.8% (21-of-43) of their drives against Atlanta over the past four weeks, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears have allowed a touchdown on 34.0% of opponent drives on the road this season, 31st in the league.
- 61.2% of the Chicago yardage has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 50.6% of the Atlanta yardage has come via rushing, third in the league.
The Bears coaching staff has tapped into maxing out the best of Field’s rushing ability while using that to set up short plays in the passing game. Sharp Football Analysis notes that after 20 designed rushing attempts Weeks 1-6, Fields has 35 designed runs over the past four games for 270 yards and three touchdowns to go along with 15 scrambles for 197 yards and a pair of scores.
With Fields adding to the rushing totals, the Bears lead the NFL rushing for an average of 201 yards per game and league-high 36 attempts per game. Those are very positive profiles for winning and covering point spreads as I’ve documented such stats for nearly two decades. Running back David Montgomery takes a bigger role moving forward as well with RB Khalil Herbert suffering a season-ending hip injury in last week’s 31-30 loss to the Lions.
But going against a deficient Falcons defense that ranks No. 30 in Football Outsiders total defensive DVOA and allowed the Panthers to rush for 167 yards and 232 yards and the Bengals to pass for 439 yards over the past month, and you can project another big game for Fields and the Bears offense.
The Bears are bouncing back with a victory this week with Fields and the running game going off again against the deficient Falcons defense.
You can bet on it.